On October 7, 2025, Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), held an online seminar titled “Vietnam Economic Update -  Macro and Financial Outlook” at HSC’s headquarters. The event brought together leading domestic and international economists to provide a comprehensive assessment of Vietnam’s economic landscape, growth outlook, and key opportunities and challenges amid ongoing global uncertainty.

The seminar aimed to deliver up-to-date global insights to Vietnam’s investor community and create a forum for in-depth exchange among financial institutions, researchers, and market participants. The event is part of HSC’s regular collaboration with the IMF, reflecting the company’s commitment to serving as an international knowledge bridge and a pioneer in financial and economic research in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s Economy Maintains Strong Momentum Amid Global Headwinds

In his presentation “Vietnam Resilience, Headwinds, and Reform Ambitions,” Mr. Jochen M. Schmittmann, IMF’s Regional Resident Representative in Vietnam, highlighted the country’s strong growth performance and resilience within Asia. Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.5% in the first half of 2025 - the highest rate since 2011 — supported by robust investment and export activities. Public spending continued to play an important role in stimulating domestic demand, while private consumption remained steady.

According to the IMF, both fiscal and monetary policies have remained supportive of growth and macroeconomic stability. However, several risks were noted, including Vietnam’s high dependence on exports to the U.S., rapid credit growth amid thin banking buffers, and potential vulnerabilities from unregulated financial activities such as cryptocurrency trading.

The IMF maintains a positive medium-term outlook for Vietnam but expects growth to moderate as the country transitions toward higher income levels and faces demographic headwinds. To sustain strong and inclusive growth, Vietnam should focus on enhancing productivity, improving capital allocation, and accelerating structural reforms. Key policy priorities include allowing greater exchange rate flexibility, modernizing the monetary policy framework, strengthening medium-term fiscal discipline, and bolstering the resilience of the banking sector.

Trade and FDI Remain Resilient Despite Tariff Pressures

Mr. Pham Vu Thang Long, Senior Director of Macroeconomic Research at HSC, presented his analysis on Vietnam’s ability to adapt to shifting global trade dynamics.

According to HSC, while new import tariffs from the U.S. and other partners may slow trade growth in 2026, Vietnam is expected to maintain its competitive position in the region thanks to its diversified export base and the strength of foreign-invested enterprises. Trade activity is projected to regain momentum in 2027 as businesses adjust supply chains and adapt to the new tariff environment.

HSC’s report noted that Vietnam’s average tariff rate of 17.9% remains relatively low compared with regional peers, helping maintain the competitiveness of key export categories such as electronics, furniture, and partially textiles. However, sectors with low local content, notably garments and footwear, will need to increase localization to mitigate risks related to rules of origin and transshipment scrutiny.

On foreign direct investment (FDI), HSC expects Vietnam’s long-term outlook to remain positive. After a slight adjustment in 2026, FDI inflows are projected to rise again from 2027, supported by competitive electricity costs, 17 existing free trade agreements (FTAs), and a steadily improving business environment. Infrastructure, legal frameworks, and administrative reforms will continue to play a pivotal role in enhancing Vietnam’s attractiveness to international investors.

Panel Discussion: Growth Drivers and Investment Outlook

The panel discussion was moderated by Mr. Long Pham (HSC) and featured Mr. Jochen M. Schmittmann (IMF) and Mr. Michael Kokalari (Chief Economist, VinaCapital). The session explored key topics including the impact of global trade shifts on Vietnam, export prospects, monetary policy, and opportunities in the capital market.

Panelists agreed that Vietnam is well-positioned to benefit from global supply chain diversification but emphasized the need to accelerate structural reforms and enhance productivity to sustain long-term growth.

Through its ongoing collaboration with the IMF, HSC continues to provide the Vietnamese investor community with global perspectives while reinforcing its position as one of Vietnam’s leading institutions in financial and economic research.